The Cipher:
North Korea is threatening the Global Community with its reckless nuclear and missile behavior. They have consistently disregarded U.N. Security Council Resolutions and have made clear, especially to China and the U.S., that they are a nuclear weapons state. The four nuclear tests, the most recent in 2016, have progressively been more potent, with reported progress on miniaturization. The dozens of missile launches, with the most recent in June 2016 of a medium-range Musadan ballistic missile, have enhanced its reach and its reported ability to mate a nuclear weapon on a ballistic missile. Currently, North Korea is an existential nuclear threat to South Korea, Japan and others in the region. Eventually, North Korea wants to be an existential threat to the U.S., with its work on a reported KN-08, a mobile, long-range ballistic missile capable of reaching the U.S.
North Korea has made it clear that the Six Party Talks (6PT) are dead. The leadership of Kim Jung-un has institutionalized “Byongjin,” a policy of economic and nuclear development. North Korean officials recently have publicly stated that North Korea is a nuclear weapons state; that they will enhance their nuclear weapons capability.
For someone who has negotiated with North Korea when we initially established the 6PT process in 2003, this is not surprising. Indeed, in the first bilateral meeting we had with North Korea in Beijing, on the margins of a plenary session with all six nations, North Korea’s lead negotiator told us that North Korea wanted to be treated in a manner similar to the way the U.S. treats Pakistan, a nuclear weapons state. He said North Korea, with nuclear weapons, wanted normal relations with the U.S.; that they would be a friend of the U.S. He went on to add that if the 6PT negotiations do not result in an agreement to Pyongyang’s liking, then North Korea would build more nuclear weapons, test them, and if necessary, sell them. Their lead negotiator was told that the U.S. would never accept North Korea as a nuclear weapons state. And if they ever sold a nuclear weapon or nuclear materials to a country or non-state actor that used them against the U.S. or an ally, we would know and take appropriate immediate action against North Korea.
Previously, North Korea has used threats and attempts at intimidation to force the U.S. and others to compromise and come to the table to negotiate. Since 2008, however, negotiations with North Korea have ceased. North Korea’s nuclear tests in 2009, 2013, and 2016 have not resulted in negotiations. Their numerous missile launches, to include putting two satellites in orbit, the recent Musadan launches, and Submarine Missile Launches have not resulted in a return to negotiations. No country wants to be intimidated and forced into negotiations, when the outcome of those negotiations only will serve the interest of North Korea. Rebuffing North Korea and not capitulating to their threats and attempts at intimidation were justified. Indeed, North Korea’s reckless behavior has resulted in a series of U.N. Security Council resolutions sanctioning North Korea, supported by all nations, including China and Russia. Currently, North Korea is an isolated and distrusted nation. Even China, their only ally on paper, is unhappy with Kim Jung-un and his reckless behavior.
We are at a critical juncture with North Korea. We can work at further isolating them, with additional sanctions, while they build more nuclear weapons and missile delivery systems. Hoping that sanctions and isolation will compel North Korea to dismantle its nuclear weapons is wishful thinking. Sanctions have not and will not get North Korea to dismantle its nuclear weapons programs. Sanctions are important, however, because it’s one of the few tools we have to punish North Korea for its nuclear and missile programs. In that regard, sanctions are important. Sanctions also make it harder for North Korea to survive and maintain its nuclear programs. However, North Korea will continue to find work arounds to get the materials necessary for its nuclear and missile programs, while continuing to enrich its leadership.
