38 North:
North Korea test fired a two-stage, liquid-propellant Hwasong-14 missile on July 4, 2017. The missile flew on a steep trajectory, reaching an altitude of about 2,800 km and impacting in the East Sea roughly 930 km from the launch site. A second flight test was attempted three weeks later, on July 28. It too flew almost vertically, peaking at an altitude of 3,725 km, while traversing a ground distance of approximately 1,000 km.
Based on available data from the two tests, analysists rushed to estimate the Hwasong-14’s reach if flown on a flatter trajectory intended to maximize range. The computed estimates for maximum range varied considerably, sparking vigorous debate among analysts about the Hwasong-14’s performance capacity. Media accounts, expert summaries, and reference sources generally favored the high-end estimates of the Hwasong-14, asserting it could reach a distance of at least 10,400 km, if not further.
