USNI News:
In contrast to Washington and Seoul, “Pyongyang seems curiously stable” politically, but what the ultimate goals are for its nuclear and missile development programs beyond regime survival are still unclear, four experts on Korea agreed Friday in a panel discussion at a Washington, D.C., think tank.
“It’s clear North Korea will not get rid of their nuclear weapons,” Hitoshi Tanaka, a former Japanese diplomat and chairman of the Japanese Institute for International Strategy, said. North Korea’s Kim Jong-un might use this time as governments are changing to do something dramatic — another missile or nuclear test to draw attention to itself.
Scott Snyder, a senior fellow at the Council of Foreign Relations, said the incoming Trump administration needs to “figure out how to buy time” in dealing with North Korea. He suggested continuing to strengthen deterrence capabilities on the part of the United States, Republic of Korea and Japan and strengthen defense measures across North East Asia.
Tanaka and he said it was important for the United States, Japan, South Korea, China and Russia to hold new talks among themselves on North Korea. “We need to be prepared for the worst” from Kim’s regime collapsing to Pyongyang attacking Seoul.
Deciding on “who’s doing what” whatever the case may be is critical.
Right now, the incoming administration also needs to “send a signal to China [that] North Korea is a priority for the United States,” Snyder said. “China holds the key,” Tanaka added.
Beijing has its own concerns about a possible collapse of Kim’s regime setting off troubles inside its borders with its own large Korean population and a flood of refugees. China also fears in that event an eventual reunification of the Korea putting a democratic capitalist country on its doorstep, he said.
