Escalation or Negotiation? A Situation Report on U.S.-Iran Relations

June 26, 2019

CNAS:

n May 21, the Center for a New American Security (CNAS) hosted an all-day tabletop exercise (TTX) in Washington, D.C., to game out three scenarios related to the crisis surrounding U.S.-Iran tensions over Iran’s nuclear enrichment program and destabilizing regional policies. The intent was to understand how key players would respond and act in these potential scenarios. The TTX included seven teams: the United States, Iran, Europe (representing primarily France, Germany, and the United Kingdom but also the European Union), China, Russia, Israel, and the Gulf Arab States (one player as Saudi Arabia/UAE and the other player as Oman). Teams featured American and foreign regional and functional experts with a deep experience in their respective areas. Players were asked to play the most realistic version of their government. The game examined three scenarios:

  • A continuation of the (at-the-time) low level of U.S.-Iran tension four months into the future;
  • A more escalatory situation that plays out over the next two years; and
  • The election of a new U.S. president in 2020 who desires to return to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).

Given the recent escalation in tension in June 2019, this report details the findings of the second and third scenarios the TTX examined, which the authors believe are the most relevant.

Key lessons from the escalation scenario include:

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Curtis Stiles - Chief of Staff