Foreign Policy Research Institute:
In August 2020, China fired what were reported to be anti-ship ballistic missiles (ASBM) into the South China Sea. The missile firings were the second time that China launched such missiles into the disputed waters. The first occurred in June 2019, when China fired six ASBMs into the area. Whether the two missile firings were launched against mobile targets or predetermined ones at sea is unclear, but it is likely that the ASBMs involved were DF-21D medium-range or DF-26 intermediate-range ballistic missiles. And since China normally conducts its missile tests in the Bohai Sea and the fact that U.S. naval forces operated in South China Sea during the weeks prior to the missile firings, China probably conducted them to not only test its ASBM capabilities, but also to deter what it considers American meddling in its waters.
Nonetheless, missile launches alone, however successful, do not mean that China can reliably hit ships at sea with ASBMs. That is because missiles and the warheads atop them are only part of a larger kill chain. Just as a rifle and bullet need a reliable human eye to hit the intended target, China’s ASBMs and their warheads need reliable intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) to hit intended targets at sea. Creating such an ISR capability is not easy. But China has been steadily assembling the components needed to develop it in the South China Sea…
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