Are North Korea’s missile tests a practice run for evading THAAD?

September 8, 2016

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un is pictured during a test-fire of strategic submarine-launched ballistic missile in this undated photo released by North Korea's Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) in Pyongyang August 25, 2016. REUTERS/KCNA

CNN:

North Korea may be seeking to outpace its southern neighbor by testing multiple missiles as Seoul prepares to deploy a controversial US missile defense system.

In what has become almost routine, on Monday North Korea fired three ballistic missiles from a base in the west across the country into the Sea of Japan.

The missiles all fell within 250 kilometers of Japan’s Okushiri Island, the country’s Defense Ministry said in a statement.

Defense dodging

Tensions have raised considerably on the peninsula since Pyongyang allegedly successfully tested a hydrogen bomb in January.

North Korea has also ramped up missile tests as negotiations between South Korea and the US to deploy the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense system (THAAD) have progressed. South Korean Defense Minister Han Min-koo said last month that THAAD is expected to be fully deployed by the end of 2017.

The simplest way to bypass a missile defense system is to just launch more missiles than it can effectively intercept, says Jeffrey Lewis, director of the US-based East Asia Nonproliferation Program.

“Launching them simultaneously is more difficult for a missile defense system,” he says. Monday’s test involved three missiles, compared to just one test-fired on Kim Jong Un’s birthday in April.

If those missiles are equipped with nuclear warheads “they don’t have to get too many up in the air and past the missile defense system to have an effect,” Lewis says.

THAAD beater

Lewis pointed to another way North Korea can potentially bypass THAAD’s defenses: via a submarine-launched ballistic missile.

Pyongyang appears to have successfully tested such a missile last month, much to the jubilation of Kim, as seen in photos released by North Korean state media.

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Curtis Stiles - Chief of Staff