National Review

A secret deal between Iran and China is in the works, part of a wider 25-year strategic vision between the two countries. Such rumors percolated in Tehran in early July at the same time that Iran was being bombarded by mysterious explosions affecting its missile and nuclear programs. The Iranian regime’s media, particularly voices and media close to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, have tried to affirm that the rumors are true and that the new shift east is a strategic challenge to the U.S. in the Middle East. The regime is also downplaying other rumors that Iran is giving away islands and slices of its economy to bring Beijing in the door.

The Iranian shift to China is part of a tectonic movement across the Middle East. Countries and groups linked to Iran now seek to exploit perceived U.S. weakness as an opportunity to get around Washington’s sanctions and to bolster Beijing. The long-term consequences are grave. China has already sought to influence other U.S. allies, such as Israel, through infrastructure projects, including port and desalination deals. Beijing has also sold drones to key U.S. partners, such as Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Jordan. Now China senses an opportunity to embrace Tehran, along with Iran’s allies in Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon.

Tehran’s decision to shift toward China comes in the context of unprecedented sanctions under Washington’s maximum-pressure campaign. With the U.S. Navy intercepting Iran’s shipments of weapons to its Houthi rebel allies and Israel striking Iranian precision-guidance munitions on the way to Hezbollah via Syria, Iran is in desperate need of stronger allies. It has found support at the U.N. Security Council from Russia and China on the upcoming expiration of an arms embargo. It has also been able to ship at least nine tankers full of gas to Venezuela. But these are drops in the economic bucket compared with what China could provide. Thus the IRGC, which controls much of Iran’s ballistic-missile and drone programs, as well as foreign and military policy and parts of Iran’s economy, is hyping the new strategic deal with China via Iranian media outlets. On July 13, Fars News and Tasnim networks bragged that Iran had outwitted Washington.

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