China and South Korea’s simmering THAAD dispute may return to the boil

February 22, 2019

East Asia Forum – The US-made Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) anti-ballistic missile system is a hot diplomatic issue between South Korea and China. South Korea decided to deploy THAAD in July 2016 amid growing threats from North Korea, but Beijing is worried that the system’s radar can penetrate its territory and undermines the regional security balance. With a second meeting of the US and North Korean leaders fast approaching, the issue may soon resurface.

Initially, China voiced its opposition to the THAAD deployment and requested that South Korea withdraw the system, but was refused. Over 16 months of recriminations and discord followed.

Bilateral relations suffered from the dispute, resulting in an estimated revenue loss of US$15.6 billion and a deterioration of South Korean views of China. Surveys show that positive public opinion of China fell from 24.1 per cent to 15 per cent in 2018. Over 58 per cent of people reported a negative view of China in 2018, up from 33.5 per cent two years prior.

Eventually South Korean President Moon Jae-in’s visit to Beijing in December 2017 helped to smooth things over. On the surface, South Korea–China relations seem to be on the mend.

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Curtis Stiles - Chief of Staff