The Asahi Shimbun:
Japan may beef up its ballistic missile defense system in response to Pyongyang’s nuclear and missile tests, but some critics are skeptical whether an expansion will be cost-effective.
“Given North Korea’s past actions, the importance of the missile defense system is significantly increasing,” said Defense Minister Tomomi Inada at a news conference on Sept. 20. “We need to constantly study (the possible expansion of the system).”
Japan’s missile defense system spending since fiscal 2004 is projected to total about 2 trillion yen ($19.8 billion) by fiscal 2018. An expansion would push that even higher.
Hiromichi Umebayashi, director of Nagasaki University’s Research Center for Nuclear Weapons Abolition, is opposed to expansion. He claims it could become a bottomless pit of spending.
“The more time passes, the more advanced North Korea’s nuclear technology gets,” he said. “Rather than the missile defense system, we should promote efforts to denuclearize Northeast Asia, including North Korea, by working together with our neighbors.”
North Korea’s latest launch was Sept. 5 when it fired three intermediate-range ballistic missiles that landed in the sea west of Hokkaido.
Pyongyang launched 11 ballistic missiles in 2014, two in 2015 and 21 so far this year, according to the ministry.
Many of the projectiles were fired from a mobile launch pad or a submarine, making it harder to detect a possible launch in advance.
This makes Japan’s preparation for interception difficult, admitted a senior ministry official.
“We could not deploy a unit to get ready to intercept in some cases because missiles were fired all of a sudden,” the official said.
If North Korea were to fire an intermediate-range ballistic missile, it could strike a target in Japan in about 10 minutes.
The ministry has begun considering diversifying its preparedness in response to North Korea’s out-of-the-blue missile launches.
Japan’s ballistic missile defense system consists of two stages: SM-3 interceptor rockets launched by Aegis vessels as the first line of defense; and PAC-3 missiles as the second.
The ministry is now considering adding another tier, possibly the land-based Aegis system used by the U.S. military or the ground-based Terminal High Altitude Area Defense system (THAAD), which will be deployed by the U.S. military stationed in South Korea.
Japan has spent 1.6 trillion yen on the missile defense system so far. The ministry has requested an additional 130 billion yen for the system in fiscal 2017, which begins in April.
The accumulative sum is projected to reach about 2 trillion yen in fiscal 2018.
If the government approves the introduction of a new missile defense system such as THAAD, it will cost an additional 100 billion yen per unit….
