Al Monitor:
Conceived as a means of deterring a nuclear strike by the Soviet Union or North Korea, missile defense is proving a useful tool in persuading the Arab countries of the Persian Gulf not to acquire nuclear weapons, according to a former head of US Strategic Command.
Retired Marine Gen. James Cartwright, who also served as vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told the annual gala of the Ploughshares Fund the night of June 8 that members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), contrary to published reports, are already extensively sharing data on ballistic missile and rocket threats. This sort of sharing, he said, is key to dealing with potential threats from Iran, a country that many GCC states regard as their chief regional adversary and worry will be bolstered by sanctions relief under an impending nuclear accord.
“Strategically,” Cartwright said, missile defense has yet to prove its worth as a tool against an intercontinental ballistic missile. “Tactically, however, missile defense could provide reassurance to our Gulf allies.”
Missile defense, Cartwright added, was a manifestation of “extended deterrence” that could persuade GCC states that they don’t need to develop nuclear weapons to protect themselves against Iran should the Islamic Republic violate the terms of an anticipated long-term nuclear agreement and acquire nuclear arms or simply continue to augment its conventional capabilities.
The White House said it had no comment on Cartwright’s analysis.
Cartwright, who retired from the military in 2011 after a 40-year career that included a stint as commander of US Strategic Command — in charge of the US nuclear arsenal — serves on the board of directors of Raytheon, a defense contractor that works on missile defense systems.
Michael Elleman, an expert on missiles and missile defense at the International Institute of Strategic Studies, told Al-Monitor in an email that he agreed with Cartwright “that regional missile defense is proving to be a useful strategic asset, and testing shows it has the potential to be effective — not as an umbrella that provides hermetic protection against short- and medium-range missiles, but as the missile equivalent to air defense. In other words, it has the potential to block a large percentage of an attacking force consisting of ballistic missiles.”
However, Elleman, who was in Abu Dhabi preparing for a workshop on missile defense cooperation, said the GCC states still have “a long way to go” in this field.
“To the best of my knowledge, the GCC does not share in real-time the radar data each state acquires,” Elleman said. “They do communicate and hand off threat targets as they pass from one sector to another. So depending on how one defines ‘sharing’ radar data, his [Cartwright’s] comment could be judged accurate, or inaccurate.”
At the same time, Elleman said, “the prospects for greater security and/or missile defense cooperation [among the GCC] have never been better” in part because of Arab concerns about Iran.
