The Diplomat:
South Korea is stuck between a rock and a hard place. After news leaked that the United States is exploring the possibility of deploying a Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) battery in South Korea to counter North Korean missile threats, Chinavoiced a strong objection, claiming that such a deployment would threaten its security. If the U.S. decides to make a formal request, Seoul will face an uncomfortable choice between its indispensable security provider and its largest trading partner – and China might not like the result.
China claims that THAAD – in particular the Army Navy/Transportable Radar Surveillance and Control Model 2 (AN/TPY-2) X-band radar that would accompany the interceptors – is unnecessary to counter North Korean missiles. Many Chinese analysts believe that, in fact, an overly hyped North Korean threat is Washington’s excuse to justify deployment of a system that actually targets China. They argue that having an AN/TPY-2 in South Korea would improve the U.S. ability to intercept Chinese missiles and could even threaten the reliability of China’s nuclear second-strike capability.
While there is some merit to Chinese military concerns, they are overblown. A THAAD battery on the Korean peninsula could, in theory, improve U.S. capability against Chinese missiles, but only at the margin and certainly not enough to threaten China’s second strike capability. China is exaggerating this threat to drive a wedge between Seoul and Washington and prevent future deployments.
The North Korean threat is real, and the U.S. response is justified. The Kim Jong-un regime is belligerent, unpredictable, and continues to rattle its nuclear saber against the United States and its allies. More alarming still, the DPRK’s nuclear weapon and missile programs continue to advance. It can already target South Korea, Japan, and potentially Guam, and Pyongyang may even be able to threaten the U.S. homeland. There is debate about the reliability of North Korea’s missiles and its ability to miniaturize a nuclear device, but, given the potential consequences, the United States, South Korea, and Japan must err on the side of caution….
