A DOD assessment team recently returned from Ukraine and reported that it had found Kyiv’s current missile defenses are inadequate to defend against the advanced threat posed by Russia. Ukraine is relying on a limited number of Soviet-era S-300V missile defense systems to counter what Ukrainian military assessments have reported as an estimated 36 Russian Iskander missile systems have been placed near their border. In addition, Russian S-400 air defense batteries provide an additional defensive layer to shield their offensive Iskander batteries from Ukrainian strike efforts. Russia is overmatching and dominating Ukrainian missile defense and strike efforts.
The Iskander is especially effective in its ability to evade missile defense systems with decoys and a maneuverable reentry vehicle (MaRV). The Iskander-M is a short-range ballistic missile that can be equipped with tactical nuclear weapons and became fully operational and integrated into the Russian military in 2006. With a range of 310 miles, the 9M723 ballistic missiles launched from Iskander batteries have the range to strike a multitude of targets throughout Europe and have been deployed in Kaliningrad since 2018. The Iskander-K, Russia’s cruise missile battery, is capable of delivering the short-range 9M728 missile, as well as the long-range 9M729 which has a range of up to 3,400 miles. In addition to nuclear payloads, the Iskander can deliver missiles that deploy conventional payloads, cluster warheads, fuel-air explosives, bunker-busters, and electromagnetic pulse (EMP) effectors.
This overmatch in Ukraine is indicative of the challenges that NATO faces more broadly. Advanced air defense capabilities will be essential if NATO is to maintain control of the skies. Bordering Ukraine are NATO allies Poland, Romania, Slovakia, and Hungary. Slovakia, who participates in the multinational ground-based air defense Tobruq Legacy exercises, fields the S300PMU long-range SAM system, the 2K12 Kub 2M tracking medium-range surface-to-air missile system, and several 9K38 Igla2s, a man-portable infrared homing surface-to-air missile system. While Slovakia recently purchased Israeli multi-mission radar (MMR), the same radar used for Israel’s Iron Dome missile defense system, the core of its air defense technology relies on systems designed decades ago by the Soviet Union and has limited capacity to defend against the advanced Russian missile threat. Hungary’s air defense capabilities are more advanced than Slovakia’s, especially following the 2020 purchase of the National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile System-3 (NASAMS-3), yet full replacement of the Soviet-era 2K12 Kub 2M is not expected to be complete until 2025. Poland has made several purchases over the past decade to improve its aging air and missile defense systems that rely on S-200, SA-3 Goa, SA-6 Gainful, and SA-8 Gecko surface-to-air missiles systems. Poland is expected to begin receiving two Patriot PAC-3’s by 2022 and has recently agreed to work with the United Kingdom to develop a new Short-Range Air Defense system (SHORAD) codenamed, “Narew”. Poland is also home to the Aegis Ashore site #2, though it is behind the original European phased adaptive approach timeline and not operational at this time it was designed and deployed to defeat Iranian Ballistic Missiles from Iran. Romania possesses the SA-2Guideline, S-200, and MIM-23 Hawk air defense systems for short and medium-range air defense. Romania is also home to a US Aegis Ashore site that too is designed and deployed to defeat Iranian Ballistic Missiles from Iran and received its first of seven Patriot batteries in 2020.
NATO’s commitment to the stability of Europe is being tested, called out, and demands cohesion and missile defense integration. NATO-wide integrated missile defense systems on the border states of Ukraine will have to contain a Ukraine Missile war and ensure it will not spread to NATO.
The United States and its allies must be 100 percent committed and prepared to unequivocally punish President Putin in response to a Russian invasion, utilizing severe economic and diplomatic tools to the maximum to ensure that Russia is completely ostracized from the international community. Given NATO’s political inability to make a significant impact in the military realm in Ukraine, every NATO member has to unify to strengthen and exceed that punishment to Russia through every possible channel. This is the deterrent that will be measured by Russia and China for further expansion into Europe and takeover of Taiwan.
