The Pacific Century is upon us where the future of the free world will be decided and acted upon across the shores of the Pacific. United States Secretary of State Blinken’s recent diplomatic mission to China underscored the strategic importance, fragility and potential volatility of the Indo-Pacific to US national security interests (NBC News Interview).

On June 19, Secretary Blinken reaffirmed the longstanding “One-China” policy and the shared commitment to the status quo in Taiwan. Addressing reporters from the Beijing American Center, the secretary declared that “policy has not changed”, but noted that the United States “remain(s) opposed to any unilateral changes to the status quo by either side. We continue to expect the peaceful resolution of cross-strait differences” (State Department Press Release).

Days after the secretary’s comments in Beijing, the importance of the region was further brought home during Biden’s meeting with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in a capstone speech before a joint session of Congress on June 22nd, 2023. “We share a vision of a free, open and inclusive Indo-Pacific, connected by secure seas, defined by international law, free from domination, and anchored in ASEAN centrality.” (C-Span)  

Leading with technological sophistication and strategic power, INDOPACOM recently concluded the bi-lateral PACIFIC SENTRY 23 exercise between the United States and the Royal Australian Armed Forces with all of the U.S. Component Commands participating. This exercise was designed to rehearse, practice, and project allied strength across the Indo-Pacific region.

While it was focused on the Indo-Pacific region with a clear recognition of the regional threats, its operational design and strategic reach had global impacts. The exercise served to test the Joint Allied expeditionary capabilities between the strategic, operational, and tactical-level components in coordination with INDOPACOM J-4 (Logistics) to sustain the space, cyber, air, land, and maritime forces.   

“We exercise with our Allies and partners consistently. INDOPACOM executes over 120 exercises a year with almost every nation in the region. Those exercises improve interoperability, increase capability and they strengthen the trust between like-minded countries. They’re becoming more multilateral. They’re becoming more complex, and they’re increasing in scale and scope every year. More nations are participating in each and every one of those exercises.” 

• INDOPACOM Commander Admiral John C. Aquilino, May 2023 to the National Committee on U.S.-China Relations

The importance of power projection across large areas of sea and air spaces is key. The U.S. must continue to demonstrate the capability, capacity, sustainability, and survivability to effectively execute both offensive and defensive fires in order to create the effects to ensure deterrence. 

The command and control of joint and allied fires across all domains of the vast Indo-Pacific is key to this power projection capability. Even more critical is the protection of the forward U.S. operating bases for refueling, maintaining, and rearming both in the First Island Chain and the Second Island Chain of the Western Pacific. Reliance on a limited number of air tankers and refuelers while not being able to effectively use aircraft carrier strike groups due to the overmatch in anti-ship missiles, places a significant burden on Guam and Okinawa as critical hubs for the United States and its allies.  

A comprehensive U.S. missile defense effort with our Allies in these hubs are essential for effective power projection capabilities and reducing casualties in the event of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. Modernized 360-degree layered missile defense architectures are required to provide deeper and broader layers of protection to the forces arrayed against these missile threats. Allied and partnered exercises like PACIFIC SENTRY-23, BALIKATAN PHILIPPINES, and NIMBLE TITAN will exercise these capabilities and serve as a deterrent signal of a commitment to the defense and status quo of Taiwan. 

At the geopolitical level, China is North Korea’s ally and actively supports the advancement of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) missile program. China and North Korea are colluding to apply strategic pressure on the United States and its allies.  

It is imperative America, along with its like-minded allies and partners, work together to explore a strategic multinational missile defense policy. Through exercises such as NIMBLE TITAN, an integrated air and missile defense campaign set 10 years in the future, the US and its allies are able to experiment with policy and operational concepts critical to developing long-term multilateral solutions. These efforts, in combination with the force readiness derived from exercises such as PACIFIC SENTRY and Balikatan Philippines exercise, are vital to sustaining an active defense amidst the complex challenges of modern global missile threats. 

The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) seeks to unify the People’s Republic of China (PRC) with Taiwan through any means necessary — political, informational, psychological or military. Satellite imagery has identified new military facilities and weapons across China, including what appears to be new silo fields for its expanding nuclear-armed force of intercontinental ballistic missiles. This accelerated expansion of offensive capabilities reveals substantive preparations by the CCP for a large-scale invasion of Taiwan. Specifically, President Xi has directed the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) to be prepared to fight by 2027, Gen. Mike Minihan, USAF warned that this invasion could take place as early as 2024 — just prior to Taiwan’s elections (Gen. Mike Minihan). Clearly, the threat of a Communist military invasion of Taiwan within the next decade is real. 

In the event of conflict, the preparedness of offensive fires, defensive forces, and survivability of military capabilities will be strengthened by refinements to the Command and Control (C2) across each and all domains.

The INDOPACOM Commander rightfully will effectively and impunity control both offensive and defensive fires with multiple options across all domains provided by joint and partner assets through a forward-based regional commander or through the Hawaii- based theater Joint Force Air Component Commander (JFACC) operating out of the 613th Air Operations Center (AOC) and supported by the 605th AOC in Japan, the 607th AOC in Korea, and the 611th AOC in Alaska. MOCs (Maritime Operations Center) based in Japan and Hawaii are additional assets to be utilized by the COCOM Commander. 

The collective revisionist behavior of China and North Korea, along with their collaborative efforts to exert strategic pressure, presents a significant challenge to the United States and its allies in the Indo-Pacific region. It is crucial for the United States and like-minded Allies to continue to conduct strategic multilateral exercises. With respect to a potential future Communist invasion of Taiwan, Secretary Blinken’s diplomacy and strategic exercises like INDOPACOM’s Pacific Sentry-23 will serve to send a clear and compelling daily message to General Secretary Xi and his Chinese Communist Party.

Not On My Watch, Not in this Century!