For the second time in a three-day span, the Royal Saudi Air Defense Forces (RSADF) and its coalition partners have intercepted a missile/drone shot over the skies of Riyadh, the capital of Saudi Arabia that houses over 7.6 million residents. On January 26th two loud explosions and a small plume of smoke above the capital were witnessed just before 1 P.M. local time. A few days earlier on January 23rd, witnesses described events in a similar fashion, identifying an explosion followed by sightings of smoke trails from a RSADF intercept.
The war between the Saudi-led coalition and the Houthi rebels in Yemen supported by Iran since 2014, is a missile war, mainly using ballistic missiles, rudimentary cruise missiles, and one-way attack drones. Riyadh has been targeted by missile and drone attacks on more than 10 occasions, as well as much more than the publicly acknowledged 70 additional drone and missile strikes targeting various other Saudi locations. Most of these have been contested with Saudi Arabian-led missile defense capabilities.
Throughout this conflict, the Houthis have targeted Saudi cities and civilian infrastructures, such as airports and oil fields. On March 26, 2018, the Houthis launched a barrage of 7 Iranian-supplied ballistic missiles at civilian areas in four Saudi cities. 3 of these missiles targeted Riyadh, while 2 were aimed at Jazan and the other missiles at the cities of Khamis Mushayt and Najran. This is a repetitive clear indication that the Iranian-backed Houthis are targeting the civilian populace as well as military, governmental, and other critical infrastructure locations.
The ongoing use of Iranian-supplied ballistic missiles and drones by the Houthis illustrates that missile attacks are now a common feature of modern conflicts employed by both nations and non-state groups. These attacks on civilian infrastructure like oil production facilities also demonstrate the growth in the accuracy of these threat missiles. In previous strikes, drone and missile attacks have done extensive damage to critical Saudi oil infrastructure by successfully targeting key equipment at these facilities.
In the past two weeks, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has conducted the “Great Prophet 15”, a three-pronged exercise designed to demonstrate and project Iranian power throughout the Middle East. Great Prophet 15 culminated with the engagement of a mock enemy vessel over 1,800 miles away from the Iranian mainland into the North Indian Ocean. It additionally facilitated the launch of a massive number of 171 ballistic missiles at various tactical, operational, and strategic level targets. Most notably, two such targets were destroyed at distances of 800 and 1080 kilometers away. Some of the new capabilities of Iran’s arsenal were on display, including the Shahab-3 IRBM and Shahed 129 UAV, as well as counter-aircraft carrier tactics, that are multiple reentry vehicle (MRV) capable systems. The IRGC’s Navy also had an exercise prior to the Great Prophet, with a short-range missile drill in the Gulf of Oman, and several rehearsals on employing anti-ship cruise missiles.
The Great Prophet 15 exercises are coming at a sensitive and influential time, with the formalization of relations between Israel and Arab nation-states, the one year anniversary of the assassination of its revered QUDS Force commander Qassem Soleimani, and the inauguration of the 46th United States President. Iran’s government is sending a series of strong messages towards the new Biden Administration with the intention of setting the tone of future relations between the two countries.
During this period, U.S. forces continue to assist the Saudi defense forces, providing air and missile defense protection, expertise, and advisors. U.S. missile defense and advisors have remained in Saudi Arabia since post-Desert Storm to assist with the defense of this strategically located U.S. ally. In addition, CENTCOM Commander General Kenneth McKenzie visited Saudi Arabia recently to inspect potential sites for additional U.S. bases and access points to be used in contingencies, underscoring the growing concern that larger U.S. force movements may be needed in a crisis to compete with Iran.
It is essential that the U.S. have sufficient force posture and enough systems like Patriot, Terminal High Altitude Aerial Defense (THAAD), AEGIS, 5TH Generation Fighter Aircraft, and Land, Air, and Space-Based Sensors to deal with the much larger and more sophisticated numbers of missiles that adversaries like Iran are rehearsing and preparing to use in a conflict. While the U.S. is making progress in improving the capability of air and missile defense systems, the reality is that the Department of Defense lacks capacity of these assets that are in short supply to deal with the much larger number of missiles now present in Iran’s arsenal. In a conflict, U.S. offensive strikes would be maximized to reduce the size of the attacking missile force, but simply do not have enough air and missile defense capacity and capability to deal with those attacks which are not eliminated by offensive strikes.
The experience of the RSADF and the wherewithal of Saudi Arabia’s leadership to purchase, upgrade, and continue to use the interoperable Patriot weapon systems employed by the U.S. is a wakeup call for the requirement for more U.S. missile defenses, more Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) missile defenses, and inclusion of Israel as an allied team player and partner in this collective defense of the CENTCOM area of responsibility. U.S. air and missile defense forces cannot sustain current global requirements with existing capacity by themselves. The time is now to lead out with the GCC and with Israel to close this gap while we still have time to achieve peace and stability in this region.
We as a world are witnessing the explosion of Nation-State Proxy Wars — with Proxies unconstrained in their use of missiles against innocent populations. This is Iran’s new method of fighting and drives the absolute requirement for collective and comprehensive integrated missile defense across the Middle East.
The United States must lead to build a new framework for Collective Missile Defense in the Middle East.
