On the eve of a grave moment in history, the world may witness thousands of lives lost in a day of conflict. If Russia attacks Ukraine, it reveals the failure of deterrence by punishment. Western influence, prevention, diplomacy, and appeasement will not have been able to stop this horrific method of a more powerful country achieving an end state over a weaker nation by the use of military force.
Russia has successfully put into place the necessary offensive and defensive missile capabilities along their western border with Ukraine to best prepare them for an all-out invasion of Ukraine. Their missile assets are strategically employed to target critical infrastructure, military bases, and key government buildings. The barrage of first-strike missile attacks will likely coincide with Cyber-attacks to disrupt and degrade Ukraine’s critical infrastructure and lead to further loss of life. Russia’s ability to decimate Ukraine’s national security architecture first through waves of missile strikes and cyber-attacks will also pave the way for a follow-on ground force invasion that will be in tandem with coordinated follow-on attacks in the other fighting domains of cyber, space, air, land and sea.
Although Ukraine possesses limited air defense capabilities, they can still use what they have to provide a base layer of defense to stem the tide of casualties that will be inevitable in this conflict. Ukraine’s deployment of the Soviet S-300 missile defense system and its accompanying radar can provide a two-fold solution if they are not compromised by the Russians who built the systems. The sensors and radars will provide early warning for passive defense, which is critical for saving lives as well as tracking incoming missiles and cue defense systems to engage. Early warning will undoubtedly save Ukrainian civilians by prompting them to quickly disperse and find immediate shelter. Ukraine’s recent acquisition of new heat-seeking MANPADs from NATO countries can provide critical point defense of high population centers from aerial threats. They can also potentially defend against Russia’s arsenal of ISR and traditional strike drones which were used during Russia’s initial 2014 invasion of Ukraine’s Donbas region and the Crimean Peninsula.
While talks are still ongoing to deescalate the crisis, Ukraine is requesting more other defense assets from NATO countries. Missile Defense Assets needed to defend Ukraine’s Command and Control (C2) centers are on top of the list as they will undoubtedly be the first targets fired on from Russia. Ukraine’s C2 centers are vulnerable not just to offensive strike capabilities, but also to cyber-attacks. Anti-jamming systems should also be in place to fortify Ukrainian C2 operation centers. Highly capable western aerial defense systems that can track ground activity and movement can provide detailed intelligence and early warning of anticipated missile launches and ground force movements. This, coupled with the aforementioned passive defense measures along with attack operations (Ukraine long-range fires) will help the Ukrainian missile defense forces defeat a number of Russian missiles and missile systems. In hindsight, there is no doubt that Ukraine should have acquired, developed, and deployed more upper-tier missile defense systems and effectors with overhead sensors that are fully integrated. It is a lesson that all nations should look to and learn from because it is about to potentially cost thousands of lives.
Defense wins Championships. For Global Missile Defense, strong Integrated Strategic Deterrence wins the Peace.
