Eurasia Review:
North Korea’s recent failures to launch intermediate range missiles should not be derided prematurely. Pyongyang has the time and political will to refine its Musudan missile into a viable threat.
By Nah Liang Tuang*
North Korea’s failed tests of its intermediate range Musudan missile may give anti-Pyongyang regime watchers a sense of Schadenfreude or pleasure from Kim Jong-Un’s misfortune. Pyongyang’s three tests in April were clearly unsuccessful while its latest test on 31st May resulted in the Musudan exploding on its launch pad.
However, if the DPRK’s attempts to build a serviceable satellite launch vehicle or long range ballistic missile are indicative, it would be premature and ill-advised to dismiss North Korea’s intermediate range Musudan development.
Tenacity of Pyongyang’s Missile Development
It took the Pyongyang regime four failed attempts before it achieved a modicum of success with its long range missile/satellite vehicle programme. That began with a Paektusan rocket based on a Taepodong-1 missile which blew up in mid-flight on 31 August 1998. Thereafter, a supposedly more developed missile, the Taepodong-2 test fired on 5 July 2006 failed about 40 seconds after launch. Subsequently, purported satellite-launch vehicles based on the Taepodong-2 named Unha were launched/tested in April 2009 and 2012 but were also unsuccessful.
Finally, an Unha-3 rocket managed to deliver a payload into an unstable orbit in December 2012. In total, the DPRK required 5 attempts to achieve a degree of long range rocket efficacy. Considering that the United States, the Soviet Union, China and other missile-capable nations took longer and incurred more failures to achieve the same progress, North Korea’s missile programme should not be derisively dismissed.
While no one should assume that the fifth test of the Musudan would be successful just as the DPRK’s fifth long range rocket achieved nominal success, the Kim regime’s missile development establishment will learn from the previous tests and have the requisite political support and funding to doggedly pursue its work. An operational Musudan is thus a matter of “when” rather than “if”.
