38 North:
Summary
North Korea’s recent successful test launch of another Bukkeukseong-1 (Polaris-1, KN-11) submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) has reinforced ongoing concerns regarding the continuing development of the missile system and the GORAE-class experimental ballistic missile submarine.
Recent commercial satellite imagery of the Sinpo South Shipyard indicates that North Korea is continuing to actively pursue development of both programs. Specifically:
- Imagery of the boat basin not only shows post-launch (maintenance) activity at the submarine but also suggests that the program may be moving towards a more advanced stage of development where the need for a submersible test stand barge has diminished. That conclusion appears to be reinforced by recent test launches from the submarine itself rather than the barge.
- The refurbishment activity at the submarine construction halls is externally complete and the extend ramp, where new boats are launched, appears almost finished. When complete, the North will be able to build and launch submarines much larger than the GORAE-class—including a new class of ballistic missile submarines.
While North Korea’s submarine-launched ballistic missile program is making progress, these activities appear in line with previous estimates that the first ballistic missile submarine and operational missiles are unlikely to become operational before 2020.
