Yonhap News:
SEOUL, Sept. 8 (Yonhap) — South and North Korea’s deal to hold reunions of families separated by the 1950-53 Korean War is raising hopes for better ties, but the North’s possible missile launch is emerging as a factor risking the viability of the reunions, experts say.
After marathon talks, South and North Korea agreed Tuesday to hold the reunions of 100 separated families each from both sides from Oct. 20 to 26 at Mount Kumgang, a scenic resort on the North’s east coast.
“North Korea fully shared the view that the issue of separated families should be fundamentally resolved by such ways as extending reunions on a regular basis and confirmation of the fate of surviving families,” said a ranking Unification Ministry official, asking not to be named.
There are more than 66,000 South Korean family members separated by the three-year conflict, which ended in a truce, not a peace treaty, leaving South and North Korea technically at war.
The issue of the separated families is one of the most pressing humanitarian matters as most of the surviving family members are in their 80s and older. About half of the estimated 129,700 applicants for the reunions have died.
Experts said that the agreement reflects both sides’ willingness to implement the two Koreas’ recent landmark deal to ease military tension and resume the family reunions on the occasion for Korea’s fall harvest holiday, Chuseok, slated for late this month.
“The agreement shows South and North Korea’s will to carry out the recent inter-Korean deal,” said Yang Moo-jin, a professor at the University of North Korean Studies.
But despite growing optimism for better inter-Korean relations, there is a possibility that North Korea could launch a long-range missile next month as the dates for the reunion follows North Korea’s 70th anniversary of the founding of the ruling Workers’ Party, which falls on Oct. 10.
Some doubt the feasibility of the upcoming reunions as the North has a track record of unilaterally delaying scheduled reunion events, including in September 2013. At that time, the reunions were pushed back to early 2014.
“As the family reunions will take place after the North’s anniversary, the South Korean government would be burdened with the North’s possible provocation when proceeding with the reunion event,” said Kim Yong-hyun, a professor of North Korean studies at Dongguk University.
North Korea is under heavy sanctions by the United Nations Security Council for its nuclear tests and multiple missile launches.
The North’s missile and nuclear programs have flared up tension on the Korean Peninsular amid concerns that it may soon develop the technology to mount a nuclear warhead on long-range ballistic missiles capable of reaching the U.S. mainland.
The North has claimed it has the right to conduct space research by test-firing what it called rockets, which outside analysts view as a cover for missile tests.
“If North Korea launches a long-range rocket, the international community could impose sanctions against the North, which will likely lead Pyongyang to revoke the family reunions in retaliation,” said Cheong Seong-chang, a senior researcher at the Sejong Institute.
Cheong proposed that the two Koreas should hold a higher-level meeting including ministerial talks in September to prevent the inter-Korean relations from sharply worsening due to the North’s possible missile launch.
Analysts called on South and North Korea to keep efforts to block their ties from returning to confrontation, based on coolheaded attitudes, adding that the humanitarian issue should be handled separately without political consideration.
The North has been irked by Seoul’s activists’ move to send leaflets carrying anti-Pyongyang messages across the border on the grounds that it is feared to hurt the supreme leadership’s dignity.
“It will be the best scenario if the North does not make any provocation,” said Chang Yong-seok, a researcher at the Institute for Peace and Unification Studies under Seoul National University. “But as the issue of family reunions is a grave humanitarian agenda, Seoul should ramp up efforts to deal with this issue separately from other affairs.”
