Overnight, Russia continued to increase its missile and drone attacks on Ukraine. Ukraine had the capability and capacity to track and intercept seven of the eleven Kh-101/Kh-555 cruise missiles and 32 Shahed drones.
The lack of air superiority over Ukraine has resulted in a war of attrition between Ukraine and Russia. This is not a winning proposition for the smaller Ukrainian force. Time is on the side of Russia, and ceding time to Russia has allowed them to evolve their missile and drone capability to exploit gaps in the Ukrainian Air Defense network, and then mass forces in those gaps to overwhelm the smaller force. If this current trend continues the result could likely be a Russian victory by the end of this summer. Providing Ukraine with increased Air Defense Capacity is absolutely crucial to reversing the current trend. Additionally, Ukraine needs relief from the current U.S. policy which prevents them from attacking targets inside Russia. Pure defense will not win this war. Ukraine must be allowed to attack the attacker.
Russia is depleting and overmatching Ukraine’s Air Defense Systems with Cruise Missiles, Ballistic Missiles, and Class 3 Drones. Ukraine requires a layered Integrated Missile Defense architecture with expensive limited effectors such as NASAMS, IRIS-T, and Patriot systems to counter Ballistic and Cruise Missile attacks, combined with cheap effectors, such as Stinger missiles and 50 caliber machine guns for low flying Drones and Cruise Missiles. Russia’s air sanctuary, enabled by U.S. policy restrictions, has enabled them to employ glide bombs on Ukrainian targets with near impunity. The Russian Glide Bombs cost around $20,000 to adapt, have a small profile, and have no heat signature, making them challenging to track and engage with effectors. The best counter to this threat is to remove the sanctuary currently enjoyed by the Russian aircraft employing the weapons. Simply stated, the Ukrainians need to gain air superiority.
Regarding the more expensive Air Defense systems, the U.S. and Western partners should supply an additional Patriot battery and 50-100 Patriot missiles as soon as possible. Meanwhile, Western nations donating Patriot and NASAMS to Ukraine can be backfilled by other Western partners. This is not charity; it is teamwork and it is an investment in global security.
There is bipartisan support in the U.S. Senate for increased funding for Ukrainian missile defense.
“The cost of having to fight the Alliance to go to an Article 5 high-end fight is a fraction of the cost in donations.”
-Brig Gen Christopher Sage “Saving Ukraine” MDAA Virtual Roundtable May 17th, 2024.
By strengthening Ukraine’s defensive capabilities now, NATO can help ensure regional stability, limit long-term spending, and ultimately deter further Russian aggression.
“I think one policy change would be the notion of trying to restrain Ukrainian forces to operating only within Ukrainian borders…I think the ability to take the fight into Russian airspace and to enable it, not just stop opposing it.”
-Mr. John Rood “Saving Ukraine” MDAA Virtual Roundtable May 17th, 2024.
“We’re always listening, we’re always learning, and we’re always making determinations about what’s necessary to make sure that Ukraine can effectively continue to defend itself…We haven’t encouraged or enabled strikes outside of Ukraine, but Ukraine, as I’ve said before, has to make its own decisions about the best way to effectively defend itself.”
-Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Moldova, May 29th, 2024.
Ukraine must be enabled to strike Russian aircraft in Russian Territory. These aircraft currently enjoy a sanctuary from which they launch strikes into Ukraine with Glide Bombs and Cruise Missiles. Such a policy change would also allow Ukraine to destroy Russia’s S-300s & S-400s that are launching surface-to-surface strikes from land into Ukraine and holding Ukrainian AF aircraft at risk, preventing them from employing against Russian targets..
“If we tell (the Ukrainians) you do not have the right to reach the point from which the missiles are fired, we are, in fact, telling them that we are delivering weapons to you, but you cannot defend yourself.”
-French President Emmanuel Macron, Germany, May 28th, 2024.
“The right to self-defense includes hitting legitimate targets outside Ukraine.”
-NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, Bulgaria, May 27th, 2024.
Today
“The president recently directed his team to ensure that Ukraine is able to use U.S. weapons for counter-fire purposes in Kharkiv so Ukraine can hit back at Russian forces hitting them or preparing to hit them,” a U.S. official said, adding that the policy of not allowing long-range strikes inside Russia “has not changed.”
-Politico, May 30th, 2024.
The Biden administration has decided to allow Ukraine to strike inside Russia with U.S.-made weapons with the aim of blunting Russia’s attacks in the Kharkiv area”
– New York Times, May 30th 2024
“If this war is lost, it will not only be lost by Ukraine. It will be lost by civilization.”
-Mr. Alexey Boyarsky “Saving Ukraine” MDAA Virtual Roundtable May 17th, 2024
