The Drive:

Russia’s threat on Wednesday to target any Patriot surface-to-air missile systems the U.S. sends to Ukraine raises questions about the vulnerability of those systems in an active combat zone that happens to be a host country invaded by Russia.

Patriots would certainly be a target, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Wednesday in response to reports that the Biden administration will likely sign off plans to ship Patriots to Ukraine. An official announcement could come as early as tomorrow.

The Patriot system would very likely be high on any Russian target list, given that even with older types of interceptors, it would be a major boon for Ukraine, which currently has little ballistic missile defense capability. Acquiring such an anti-ballistic missile capability will become dire if Iran ships hundreds of short-range ballistic missiles to Russia. The timing of such a shipment remains unclear but it could happen at any time or factors could keep it from materializing entirely.

Beyond that, Patriot would be a huge upgrade specifically to Ukraine’s long-range aerial surveillance and air defense capabilities aimed also at countering air-breathing threats like cruise missiles, aircraft, and drones, compared to the Soviet-era systems currently fielded by the country in this role. Russia is already struggling with existing Ukrainian air defenses that have done a pretty notable job of protecting the skies, keeping the Russian Air Force at bay from crossing into territory it does not control.

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