For people around the globe, 2020 can in many ways be described as the ‘Year of Living Dangerously’ due to the COVID-19 pandemic and a host of increased threats to our security. At MDAA, we tracked down the large growth in the pace and sophistication of the missile threat facing the United States and our allies.

In particular, during 2020 we saw America’s largest and most capable potential adversaries in China and Russia accelerate work on new strategic weapons systems. We also saw rogue states like North Korea and Iran develop and display new missile systems in parades and high-profile military exercises, meant to send a message to the U.S. about their willingness to move forward with these strategic capabilities. In each of these cases, missiles are a core component of their military strategies and modernization efforts aimed at expanding a military advantage in an area where U.S. and allied defensive capabilities have begun to fall behind advances in offensive weaponry.

From the information collected throughout the calendar year 2020, it’s evident that our adversaries have increased their research, development, testing, & evaluation (RDT&E) efforts pertaining to an array of strategic strike weaponry, and/or weapons-related advancements, that directly threaten the national security and core interests of the United States.

In terms of systems, the RDT&E list includes:

• Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs)

• Intermediate Range Ballistic Missiles (IRBMs)

• Submarine Launched Ballistic Missiles (SLBMs)

• Submarine Launched Cruise Missiles (SLCMs)

• Air Launched Cruise Missiles (ALCMs)

• Hypersonic missiles.

In 2020, Russia conducted multiple tests involving hypersonic delivery vehicles, including its first ship-launched hypersonic anti-ship missile, posing a significant threat to the navies of the U.S. and its allies. Russia has placed a high value on hypersonics, due to their ability to penetrate U.S. missile defense systems. The transformational nature of hypersonic missiles stems from their extraordinarily high speed and the unpredictability of their flight path, given the maneuverability of the glide body enabled by high-speed flight within the atmosphere.

Throughout the year, the People’s Liberation Army of the People’s Republic of China continued its aggressive pursuit of military dominance in the Indo-Pacific, with modernization, demonstration, and deployment of A2/AD (Anti-Access / Area Denial) capabilities. Tensions with the U.S. continue to grow in the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea, and across the Pacific. Most notably, the PLA has been upgrading its naval-strike capabilities, demonstrating advances in its SLBM forces as well as fielding its first long-range-anti-ship ballistic missile capability (the “carrier killer”). These developments are concerning, given China’s doctrinal emphasis on Anti-Access / Area Denial to disrupt freedom of navigation for the United States and the international community, throughout vital shipping lanes that carry the majority of the cargo shipped annually worldwide.

The United States adapted its national defense strategy to prioritize great power competition, but rogue states remain a significant threat to the U.S. and our allies. In 2020, North Korea displayed its largest ICBM (and one of the largest in the world) to date, at a military parade. The display is another demonstration of the North’s continued pursuit of greater strategic missile and nuclear weapons capabilities, in the face of diplomatic efforts undertaken by President Trump and previous U.S. administrations that have failed to curb North Korea’s strategic weapons programs. North Korea’s malign activities never stopped throughout 2020, and are expected to continue throughout 2021. As North Korean leader Kim Jong-un explained to the Eighth Congress of the ruling Workers’ Party on January 8, 2021, “We must develop tactical nuclear weapons that can be applied in different means in the modern war, depending on the purpose of operational missions and targets, and continue to push ahead with the production of super-large nuclear warheads.”

In the Persian Gulf, Iran conducted tests of more advanced missiles in 2020, demonstrating ranges capable of reaching all of the Middle East nations, exacerbating the ongoing threat to regional security.

As President Biden assumes office as the 46th President of the United States, his administration will have to seriously take into consideration the dramatic changes that occurred throughout the strategic, operational, and tactical landscapes in 2020, and invest in defensive weapons systems to enhance stability for diplomacy — and to keep our nation and allies safe.