Next Big Future:
China has a policy of striking back with nuclear weapons if they are hit first. Chinese experts have started to worry that this second-strike credibility is eroding. They believe China needs more and better nuclear weapons to show that it could still strike back if attacked.
US construction of missile defense and improving conventional precision strike weapons will require China boost nuclear capability. China has about 280 nuclear weapons and 4 nuclear missile submarines. Four nuclear submarines are needed to keep one nuclear submarine at sea at all times.
If China expands to eight nuclear submarines, then this could mean about 48 more nuclear missiles. China already has four Type 094 nuclear missile submarines and is expected to build a fifth. The Type 096 is a projected class of ballistic missile submarine (SSBN) for China’s People’s Liberation Army Navy Submarine Force. The submarine is expected to begin construction in the early 2020’s and be armed with the JL-3 SLBM.
