War on the Rocks:
Late last year in Australia, there was sudden interest shown in ballistic missile defense. Although the driver was North Korea’s missile testing, the real issue is China.
China’s latest ballistic missiles, combined with its new island bases, are steadily undercutting Australia’s ability to defend itself without relying on foreign combat forces. Canberra’s four decades–long defense policy of self-reliance is in danger. China is altering the local strategic balance, and Australia’s defense force structure may need to change in response.
Before proceeding, it must be stressed that China is not a threat, which in defense planning is defined as the sum of a nation’s military capabilities and its intent. But China is taking deliberate, long-term measures to significantly improve its military capabilities in the region, including by building six new islands in the South China Sea. Intent, of course, can change overnight.
