Vice News
Step 1: The US probably notices well before the launch
Given what technology we know North Korea currently has, it’s safe to say a nuclear-armed missile wouldn’t just suddenly erupt from an underground silo. North Korea has a few potential launch methods, but the most trustworthy would be an old fashioned—and very obvious—stationary launch tower. But Baker told me that option is actually the worst because intelligence officials in enemy countries would have time to catch on. “Those are the ones that take several days to several weeks to set up and prepare the missile,” he said.
North Korea has successfully tested submarine-launched missiles as recently as December, but submarine-launched missiles only allow North Korea to attack from a few hundred miles off the coast, and North Korea’s janky submarines would have a tough time making it that far.
A better option would be a launch from a transporter erector launcher, or TEL. “You see them in the movies and TV shows, basically a big truck with a trailer on it,” he told me. “That’s an hour timeline, to move the missile out of the tunnel, set it up, and fire.” And for the record, North Korea does look like it owns some TELs, since it bought some from China in 2012, and parades missiles around Pyongyang in them.
But Baker seemed positive that even a one-hour setup is enough time for the world to notice that a North Korean missile is about to be launched, citing intense scrutiny on the region from an international network of radar scans, imaging satellites and heat signature-tracking equipment. “Very quickly after the North Koreans carry out a test, there are statements from the US and Japan about whether the test was successful or not, and that’s because they’ve been monitoring the entire thing, even when the North Koreans do a surprise test with the mobile systems,” Baker explained to me.
In short, he says there wouldn’t really be a surprise attack. “First, all the missile defense systems are put on heightened alert,” Baker told me. After that, he explained that Japanese missile defense ships would be maneuvered into place.
Game on for missile defense.
