The Japan News:
North Korea has rapidly improved its nuclear weapon and ballistic missile technology, making it a serious threat to Japan’s national security. In what ways are Japanese citizens being protected from North Korean missile attacks, particularly those mounted with nuclear warheads? Japan’s ballistic missile defense (BMD) is being forced to further enhance its capabilities.
“We sort of knew that they were going to do it. It was the first time there were two tests in the same year, and the scale of the explosion was the largest yet. Although we expected it, we are taking it very seriously,” a Defense Ministry senior official said following North Korea’s fifth nuclear test that took place on Sept. 9.
Among ballistic missiles capable of delivering nuclear warheads, North Korea is believed to have deployed approximately 200 Rodong medium-range ballistic missiles, with a range of roughly 1,300 kilometers, that are capable of reaching targets almost everywhere in Japan. With the advance of North Korea’s nuclear and ballistic missile development, the prospect of nuclear strikes on Japan is becoming a real possibility.
If this is indeed the case, how prepared is Japan’s BMD?
Currently, Japan has two tiers of preparedness wherein the Standard Missile 3 (SM3) mounted on the Maritime Self-Defense Force’s Aegis vessels shoot down incoming missiles in the outer atmosphere, while the Air Self-Defense Force’s Patriot Advanced Capability-3 (PAC3) surface-to-air guided missiles intercept them at an altitude of roughly a dozen kilometers.
Incoming ballistic missiles would be detected, identified and tracked using systems such as the SPY radar on Aegis vessels and the ASDF’s FPS-5 or FPS-3 warning and control radar, and intercepted.
Interceptions by Self-Defense Forces are directed in a unified manner by the ASDF’s Air Defense Command, which was moved in 2012 to Yokota Air Base in Tokyo, the location of the U.S. Forces Japan headquarters. At the command post on the base, the commander of the Air Defense Command cooperates with the commander of U.S. Forces Japan and makes a decision on whether to intercept a missile while observing a screen that displays the missile’s wake and expected point of impact.
It is estimated that Rodong missiles usually travel at Mach 3, Musudan medium-range ballistic missiles aimed at targets such as Guam travel at Mach 5 to 7, and KN08 intercontinental ballistic missiles for strikes against the U.S. mainland travel at Mach 10 or more.
In the case of the Rodong missile, it only takes about 10 minutes to reach the Japanese mainland. In order to be able to quickly respond to missile attacks, the SDF and U.S. military are working on strengthening their partnership.
On Aug. 3 and Sept. 5, North Korea launched ballistic missile warheads into Japan’s exclusive economic zone (EEZ). According to Article 82-3 of the SDF Law, the interception of incoming ballistic missiles by the SDF is to prevent harm to human life and property within the territory of Japan.
Therefore, missiles that land in Japan’s EEZ — which is not Japanese territory — are essentially ineligible as targets for interception. There is a possibility that Pyongyang took this into consideration and intentionally aimed the missiles there, which also suggests an improvement in technical prowess.
The Defense Ministry has become increasingly vigilant against simultaneous attacks by multiple ballistic missiles. North Korea demonstrated its ability to carry out such attacks when, on Sept. 5, it simultaneously launched three missiles and had them land in roughly the same area.
The Defense Ministry is hurrying to strengthen Japan’s BMD readiness.
In addition to increasing the number of Aegis vessels equipped with the SM3 missile system from four to eight, there are plans to deploy SM3 Block 2A (currently 1A), an enhanced interception missile system now under joint development by the United States and Japan, from around fiscal 2021.
Compared to a range of over 100 kilometers for currently deployed systems, the SM3 Block 2A missile system is expected to have a range of over 1,000 kilometers, which will significantly extend the range of protection provided. Possible interception of a Musudan missile, such as one that landed in June after attaining a peak altitude of over 1,000 kilometers, is being considered. Moreover, it is also equipped with an ability to respond to measures such as decoys, which aim to avoid interception, and its destructive capabilities have been enhanced.
The SDF highly anticipates the system. “It will give us greater leeway. We want it as soon as possible,” a senior officer said.
They also plan to upgrade the PAC3 missile system to one with a doubled range and the ability to deal with multiple warheads simultaneously, and to start deploying them from fiscal 2020.
Budget constraints a problem
North Korea is advancing nuclear and ballistic missile development at a faster pace than the United States and Japan anticipated. It is also enhancing its surprise-attack capabilities through the recent use of transporter erector launchers, whose launches are difficult to detect, as well as submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs).
There are still many challenges faced by the intercepting side.
A number of experts and government officials are calling for the introduction of the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD), a state-of-the-art U.S. missile defense system that the U.S. military has decided to deploy in South Korea, and a land-based Aegis system known as “Aegis Ashore.”
The Aegis Ashore is “essentially an Aegis vessels’ BMD capabilities brought ashore,” according to an SDF official. It would be more easily operated at all times, compared to sea-based Aegis systems. If the current dual layer could be enhanced to a triple or a quadruple layer, the probability of intercepting incoming missiles will increase….
